A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
